May 28, 2022

Migration has changed the size and shape of the UK labor market in recent decades, but moving to a more restrictive government since leaving the EU will not allow the ‘high wage’ economy to thrive, the prime minister claims. What is it. New research from the Resolution Foundation was published today.

Under the new arrangement – The 15th report for The Economy 2030 Inquiry, in collaboration with the LSE, funded by the Nafield Foundation – examines how the UK’s migration system has affected the labor force in the past, and new Government, which restricts work-related immigration. Higher wages will mean more work for the UK’s workforce.

The author says that restricting freedom of movement will change the labor market, a hope that is well-founded, as immigration has significantly changed the size and structure of the UK labor force over the past two decades. have done.

Between 1994 and 2019, the UK’s labor force grew by 18% (4.9 million), with immigrants accounting for more than three-quarters (77%) of that growth, and one-third of EU workers alone. (34%). The overall development of the labor force

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During this period, EU migrants have been increasingly represented in low-wage occupations – part of which reflects the accession of eight Eastern European countries to the EU in 2004.

In 2000, both EU and non-EU immigrants were more likely to work in highly skilled administrative and professional roles than workers born in the UK (with 6 and 8 percentage points, respectively). By 2019, however, EU workers were significantly more likely to be employed in low-paying jobs, such as plant operatives (6% points) or in initial roles (9% points), than workers born in the UK.

The report notes that the new migration system will mean significant changes for some low-wage industries that rely on migrant workers and generally run high-skilled businesses – such as food preparation, warehousing and Accommodation – with many of their roles excluded from the new ‘artists’. Worker Visa (SWV).

For example, in 2017-19, one in five food manufacturing workers (20%) were from the EU and will be ineligible for SWV, meaning the sector needs to change or shrink significantly in the coming years. The food and housing sectors, which rely on EU workers in SWV-disqualified roles for 10% of their workforce, have seen double-digit vacancies as the economy reopens.

But despite past evidence that migration has a positive effect on firm-level productivity, the report argues that the impact of the new migration system on the economy as a whole is likely to diminish.

The Prime Minister’s claim that controlled migration is the key to a new high-wage economic strategy. Although low productivity shrinking, migrant-dependent sectors such as agriculture and food production may increase average productivity, the new government is unlikely to have much of an impact on the wider productivity problem of the UK economy. There is no strong link between change. The share of workers who are migrating to all countries and increasing productivity.

Lower migration will also not cause much damage to public finances, as opponents of low migration often warn. Although the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the new migration system could save مال 2 billion in public finances by 2024-25, these figures are much lower than other expenditures, such as the Code. متعلق 8.7 billion on 19 personal protective equipment. Devices (PPE) that the Department of Health and Social Care recently reported in writing.

Kathleen Hennon, senior research and policy analyst at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Despite claims from both sides of the debate, the UK’s new migration system is designed to change the UK’s economic momentum, or its central low investment, low productivity challenges. Very little will work.

“Over the last two decades, immigration has had a profound effect on the size and structure of the UK labor force, and immigrants are increasing their workforce by more than three-quarters.

“And sectors that rely primarily on migrant workers – such as food preparation, warehousing and housing – are more exposed to changes in government, hiring low-paid non-UK workers in these industries and Will limit the ability of firms to respond promptly to change demand.

“But the evidence does not suggest that a change in the level and nature of migration will change our economy, or our public finances.”

“Ultimately, the migration strategy is not a substitute for the economic strategy.”

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